GTA resale housing market tightened in July 2026 with home sales slightly down 0.9% year-over-year and new listings dropping 17.8%. Condo sales fell 0.1%, mainly outside Toronto, while townhome sales decreased 2.7% overall but rose 8.7% in Toronto. Average condo prices dropped 2.3%, townhomes 3.9%, and the Home Price Index fell 4.6%. Market conditions suggest increased buyer competition and limited negotiation room.
CMHC expects Toronto sales to increase in 2026, even while prices remain below recent peaks.
Here’s the overlooked part: today’s abundant inventory could give patient buyers more choice and negotiating room.
Royal LePage expects GTA prices to decline 2% by Q4 2026, while activity continues building.
The bigger opportunity may be buying when competition is quiet—not perfectly predicting the market’s bottom.
Toronto area homebuyers are increasingly negotiating below asking prices as market conditions shift from a seller's market to a more balanced one. In July, 78.1% of homes sold below asking, with a median discount of 2.8%. Higher-priced homes saw larger discounts, with 86.4% selling below asking. Buyers now have more leverage due to greater inventory and choice, though signs show this advantage may lessen if listings decline. Realistic pricing and market responsiveness are key for sellers.
In Late-Q2 2026, Toronto saw one of the strongest affordability gains as falling home prices, not easier financing, became the main driver.
Toronto recorded a ~2.5-point affordability improvement after its representative home price fell ~4% during the quarter, leaving the payment-to-income ratio near 68%.
In Toronto, the shift from rate-driven to price-driven gains was especially clear, highlighting how softer prices recently improved buying conditions more than mortgage rates.
For Toronto buyers, mortgage rates were not expected to deliver much additional relief over the next year, making other affordability supports increasingly important.
In Toronto, further affordability improvement increasingly depended on income growth and restrained home-price appreciation, as financing costs were no longer expected to help.
As someone who specializes in comparative market analysis here in the Greater Toronto Area, I always keep a close eye on the latest trends. This past year, we've seen real estate prices dip by 4.5%, settling around $1 million. Sales are down 6.8%, with active listings dropping 22.3% and new listings off by 17.3%. What's interesting is that homes are moving faster despite this tighter inventory—buyers are clearly being drawn to the outer municipalities. Navigating these shifts takes a keen understanding of the local market, and my focus remains on helping clients make smart decisions, whether they're buying or selling.
Toronto’s housing market is experiencing a notable shift — we’re seeing the move toward a truly balanced landscape. As someone who specializes in comparative market analysis here in the Greater Toronto Area, I’ve observed fewer listings and stable sales figures, with home prices having dropped over 25% since 2022. This shift means negotiations between buyers and sellers are more even, with neither side holding a clear advantage. For anyone considering their next step, understanding these dynamics can make all the difference in maximizing your sale or finding the right opportunity.